Monday, June 11, 2012

Thunder VS Heat: Stormy match-up

Now that the final two final contenders, it's time for the final predictions of the 2012 NBA season!

On Sekou Smith's Hang Time Blog the experts favor Oklahoma City 5 votes to 1, but what do the stats say?

The same model that was used to correctly predict the Thunder in 5 against the Lakers, and had slightly favored the Spurs in 7 over the Thunder in 6, gives a small advantage to OKC given its track record and homecourt advantage, but the margin is extremely close:

Winner Num games Probability
OKC 4 6.4%
MIA 4 6.0%
OKC 5 13.8%
MIA 5 11.3%
OKC 6 15.0%
MIA 6 16.3%
OKC 7 17.0%
MIA 7 14.4%

So if I had to put my money down, it would be for the Thunder in 7 as 3 experts claimed.
But be careful, Miami in 6 is a very close possibility!

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